The Triumph Hurdle looked to be an extremely strong renewal on paper this term but that may not have been the case according to the times in comparison with the County Handicap Hurdle run on the same day. Below I have taken a look at both races to determine the strength of the Juveniles for next season.
The Triumph Hurdle was won dramatically by Burning Victory and run with an overall recorded time of 4m6.28s, and the County Handicap Hurdle was won by Saint Roi was run in an overall time of 4m2s according to the Racing Post website.
My fractions are recorded from the landing of the first hurdle. Both races set off fairly evenly but to get a clear starting point this has proved more accurate.
Leaders Splits – Allmankind v Embittered
Plenty expected Dan Skelton’s Allmankind to go off at a blistering gallop in the Triumph Hurdle including me, however, that was not the case on the clock in comparison to the County Hurdle highlighted below despite my original first impressions on course.
Above shows at the second, third, fourth and fifth hurdles the County Handicap Hurdle race was run 2 seconds quicker by Le Ligerian to that of the Triumph Hurdle. That pace was maintained up to the fifth flight where he was 1 second quicker and then on level terms at the 3rd last hurdle (6th).
Le Ligerian was the early leader in the County Hurdle until dropping away rapidly coming into the home straight (not surprisingly unable to keep up the early fractions) with the camera unable to pick up his final hurdle time or his finishing time, so a more reliable stick has been to use the prominent runner Embittered who’s fractions read the same in the early part of the race bar the second Hurdle due to his proximity to the leader.
Below highlights the early pace difference between the two leaders with Allmankind seemingly given a more restrained ride than what he had been given on the lead up to the Triumph Hurdle.
2nd Hurdle Allmankind Triumph Hurdle on the Left – Le Ligerian leads the County on the Right
3rd – Hurdle Allmankind left – Le Ligerian right (Embittered 3rd right)
Top of the Hill 3 from home – Allmankind Left – Le Ligerian and Embittered right
Both races jumped the third last flight in unison (above) with the Triumph Hurdle leaders Allmankind and Goshen making up 1 full second between the fourth and fifth hurdles and then a further 1 full second on the approach to this flight.
On the run to the hurdle at the bottom of the hill (2nd last) Triumph Hurdle, long time leader Allmankind had gained another 1 second on the County Hurdle field on the run between flights putting him ahead of Embittered. Making up a total of 3 seconds between the fourth and the seventh hurdle’s.
At the final flight, those mid-race exertions took their toll on Allmankind as Embittered was able to make up plenty of ground conserving energy before finishing much stronger than his race leading rival.
Embittered ran from 2 out to the finish line in 54.5s in comparison to Allmankind finishing from 2 out to the finish line in 59s.
Embittered set the stronger fractions over-all in their respective races and clocked a slower time on only one occasion suggesting that Embittered could well have more to come over further and is likely ahead of his mark given that himself and Allmankind are rated the same on 147.
On this evidence, it would be hard to fancy Allmankind going forward with a handicap mark on the high side and having had the race run to suit (quickening off a slow pace).
Goshen v Saint Roi Race Splits
Very similar fractions set by the pair, with Goshen a maximum of 2 seconds behind Saint Roi at the third hurdle in which Saint Roi raced in 6th position around 4 lengths behind Embittered who was in 3rd. In turn, Goshen raced in 3rd position in his field highlighting the discrepancy in pace between the two races.
Other than the second hurdle Goshen raced within 1 second of Saint Roi and then 1/2 a second before meeting on terms at the 3rd last and came off much stronger down to the landing side of the final flight.
The pair were on level terms jumping three from home in their respective races on the clock but by the time Goshen had got the second last hurdle he was 1 second ahead of Saint Roi (around 4 lengths). He then quickened again and was 2 seconds ahead at the final flight.
Goshen ran from 3 out to the final hurdle (landing side) in a time of 1m25s
Goshen ran from 2 out to the final hurdle (landing side) in a time of 39 secs
Saint Roi ran from 3 out to the final hurdle (landing side) in a time of 1m27s
Saint Roi ran from 2 out to the final hurdle (landing side) in a time of 40 secs
Mathematic outcome if the pair would have raced side by side
Saint Roi was 2 seconds behind Goshen at the final flight so using the formula of 4 lengths per second the maths should read as follows:
2x4lps= 8l lengths and in turn, should then be relative to the distance of Allmankind who was 11l down and tiring behind Goshen on his approach own to the final flight.
Which means Allmankind would have had to of been 1 second slower (providing he maintain the pace) than Saint Roi by the time they reach the final flight, equaling around 12l give or take.
To ensure that the formula works I have compared it across both races above which shows above that Allmankind got to the final hurdle at 3m44 and Saint Roi at 3m43 – a 1-second difference. 1x4lps = 4l Which would suggest that Saint Roi was around 4l ahead of Allmankind who was 11/12 lengths (give or take) off Goshen at the time of Goshen jumping the final flight.
This suggests that Saint Roi would have been 7-8 lengths behind Goshen according to the above times when running side by side.
However, here is the tricky part, the above suggests that Saint Roi would have had to really motor home to pick Goshen up after the last hurdle in which, as we have established, was a deficit of between 7-8 lengths. But he did do just that! Saint Roi’s closing sectional after the final flight was recorded at 13.5 seconds which is outstanding!
To put that into perspective Epatante’s closing sectional taken from the same landing spot in the Champion Hurdle was recorded at 14.03 seconds.
Shishkin/ Abacadabras recorded times in the Supreme Novice Hurdle of 14.44 seconds
Now that does need to be taken with a pinch of salt given the ground conditions on different days and the new/old course factor. It’s also worth noting that Epatante carried 4lbs more on her back than Saint Roi with Shishkin and Abacadabras both carrying 8lbs more but the unexposed hurdler looks one going places.
If Goshen had finished the race (Theoretically)
For argument’s sake, let us imagine that Goshen cleared the final flight and we give him a low ball figure of 15 seconds to run from the final flight to the finish line.
Goshen (theoretical) final flight to the finish line – 15s
Saint Roi (actual) final flight to the finish line – 13.5
Using the formula of 4lps again this would suggest that if they had met the final flight at the exact same time (they didn’t) then Saint Roi would have put 6 lengths between himself and Goshen.
However, they didn’t meet the final flight on time as Saint Roi had to make up the 7/8 lengths deficit according to the clock (see above). Which means he would have still been behind Goshen by around 2 lengths if the above scenario would have played out.
Saint Roi was coaxed into his race and he showed after the final flight that he had plenty to give. Saint Roi can likely run faster than he produced on this occasion but simply didn’t need to as his jockey smuggled him into the race. It would need to be seen again before getting too over-excited about one that’s won a big field handicap but based on this evidence he could be another worth his place in the Champion Hurdle next term but there is no way I would have him over Goshen at this stage.
Of course, it’s very hard to know what would have happened after the final flight and we can only predict but Goshen was yet to really be asked the question under hands and heels ride from Jamie more. So how he was able to quicken up after the third last and continue to quicken suggests he is a top-class prospect. There is every reason to think he would have maintained that pace through the line and even with a low ball (theoretical figure) he comes out on top and with no use of the whip there is surely plenty more to come.
Horses to Note
Burning Victory- Will likely be over-looked because of the nature of her victory but managed to come off a slow early pace and pick up strongly in the closing stages.
Embittered – Ran some strong fractions and with a more patient ride would have finished closer to the winner. Did the best of those on the front end and he could be graded class.