Cheltenham Festival Indicators from 19th/20 Jan – By Jay Dutton – @JayLfc94
Mister Fisher
The Skybet Supreme trial Grade 2 was won comfortably by Mister Fisher who returned the even money favorite on the day.
He was a huge gamble from 6/1 into 10/11 during the week when Nicky Henderson’s other runner Angels Breath seemed the most likely to take his chance, however he never got declared so it was clear Mister Fisher was going to be going off favourite for this race. He did drift out to 6/4 at one point but was then smashed back in the betting before the race. On paper this seemed a two horse race between him and Bright Forecast of Ben Pauling who they clearly think a fair bit of, if you listen to interviews from the trainer. He was also strongly supported before the race going into as short as 6/4 before drifting out to around 2/1.
Bright forecast made the running over the first 3 hurdles and lead past the grand stand, James Bowen seemed happy to track the pace and sat just behind the leader which wasn’t a bad idea giving how he can be a little bit keen early on in his races. As they raced around the first bend Bright Forecast must have seen his stable and tried to run out before David Bass corrected him and got him back into the lead. He probably lost a couple of lengths at worst. They continued on down the back straight were the pace had seemed to quicken slightly, once they had turned into the home straight the leader tried to stretch them out but jockey James Bowen was wise to the move and stylishly he drew along side. At the second last he seemed to bunny hop over but landed in the lead, he didn’t do a whole lot once he got to the front he had to be giving a few back handers to wake him up but he ran out a comfortable winner on the day.
The commentator mentioned that he was still a work in progress, he is only a 5 year old and still seemed quite babyish. It was more workman like in the end but giving the fact he had a 3 pound penalty for his previous win at Kempton in a Class 2 it was a smart performance. The ground was officially good to soft but it looked quite hard work to me which certainly wouldn’t suit this horse. I think, better spring ground come Cheltenham and Nicky Henderson’s horse will be able to use his speed more effectively.
In what looks a wide-open year for the Supreme, I think this horse could go there with a decent chance.
Bookmakers didn’t seem to impressed by the performance as they only clipped him generally into 10/1 from 12/1. In my opinion, I think Nicky Henderson would be doing the right thing if he was to give this horse another run beforehand.
The Dovecot novices hurdle back at Kempton where he has raced twice and won twice would be ideal. Two things which could be against him is the fact he has not raced on an undulating track such as Cheltenham, all his races have been on flat tracks with easy finishes. The other thing is this trial doesn’t have a habit of throwing up Supreme winners, infact, just once in recent years, 2012 Cinders and Ashes won before going on to Supreme Glory.
Global Citizen
The New One Unibet Hurdle (registered as The Champion Hurdle trial Grade 2). This was a race before hand that I looked at and could only imagine two horse in the field actually doing anything in a champion hurdle itself, Global Citizen and Pingshou the rest of the field i seen as high class handicappers at best.
However, back to hurdle’s did not exactly spark a revival in Pingshou so for him I’m not sure what will be next. The Ben Pauling trained Global Citizen has got a reputation as a front runner who wears his heart on his sleeve and tries his best every time. Regular Jockey David Bass was on board again here, to my surprise they attempted to hold him up in midfield. As you would expect for a usual front runner he was keen and taken a strong hold. After he jumped the third it was clear Bass was fighting a losing battle so let him go a touch and he took the lead and was happy once he was in front. His hurdling throughout the race was slick and he had his race won jumping 3 from home when Silver Streak made a bad mistake at a crucial time. He was still hard on the bridle running down to 2 showing his class and the last half a furlong he was slowing up slightly which was likely down to his tendancy to pull early on. Either way it wasn’t a problem as he had the race won a long way out and returned at a SP off 3/1.
When interviewed after the race Ben Pauling insinuated his current odds of 33/1 for a champion hurdle is far too big, I tend to agree with him. I am not suggesting for one minute he is good enough to win a Champion Hurdle because he would probably have to improve another stone to do that. Buveur D’air is the one to beat no doubt, Laurina looks likely to be heading for the race now too. Something has to come third but there really isn’t anything else in there that is top class who you could say will definitely will be placed and with him likely to be giving an easy time out in front it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if he was to get placed in the race. He is also ground versatile which is a massive help to him.
Altior
Matchbox Clarence House Chase Grade 1.
As expected Altior strolled around to victory at odds off 1/10. On Monday only 4 horses was entered to take on the superstar horse. Come the day 3 turned up Fox Norton coming back from a long abscence and Diego Du Charmil who Altior had already disposed off by 19 lengths at Compton without breaking a sweat. He made his own running here but what was fascinating was the fact he was jumping out to his left, i don’t think it was that much of a big deal he has raced on right handed courses plenty of times and the main thing for him is Cheltenham is a left handed course so it should prevent the problem straight away. I think this horse is that far superior to anything else he could give a length away at every fence on any race course and still be good enough to win comfortably. Currently as it stands he is best priced 4/7 to defend his Champion Chase crown and he is probably the only banker likely to be at the festival this year.
Ask Ben
Winner at Ayr on Sunday off a novice hurdle over 3m by 19 lengths, he was visually impressive but the truth be told he was just far to good for his below average rivals. I seen a few people on twitter talking about him as a possible lively outsider for the the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham. On his debut under rules he ran out a shock 50/1 winner at Newcastle beaten Beakstown a head.
The form off this race was giving a huge boost when Beakstown went to Warwick and won a Grade 2 very easily. Back in fourth in the same Newcastle novice hurdle was Windsor Avenue who came out today at Sedgefield and hosed up by 15 lengths so his form does have a good look to it. I am not comparing him talent wise in anyway but he reminded me of watching a peak form Coneygree the way he would just gallop from the front and keep finding for pressure and running his rivals into the ground. He was neater over his hurdles and I know Graeme McPherson thinks he is a very smart horse and is keen to run him in the Albert Bartlett trial at Haydock in February, that will leave him with four weeks between Haydock and Cheltenham.
He is likely to get soft ground at Haydock in February and should he put up another smart performance and win there and the 40/1 available for the Albert Bartlett right now will be long gone.
His running style seems as though the Albert Bartlett will be a suitable race for him but weather he can control what is usually a big field from the front we will have to wait and see. It would be great for one of the smaller trainers to head to Cheltenham will a smart horse who has a realistic chance of winning so he is a horse i will be keeping a close eye on for now and seeing how he develops.
Daryl Carter Horse Racing 